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2 Mar

Le Resserement des Règles Hypothécaires Influent sur les Ventes de Propriétés

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Publi par: Eileen Crosbie

Le Resserement des Règles Hypothécaires Influent sur les Ventes de Propriétés

New Mortgage Regulations Weigh On Home Sales
Ce matin, l’Association Canadienne de l’Immeuble (ACI) a publié ses statistiques immobilières nationales de janvier montrant que les ventes de maisons ont diminué de 1,3% par rapport au mois précédent au premier mois de cette année. Ce projet a mis les reventes à leur deuxième niveau mensuel le plus bas depuis l’automne 2015 et seulement légèrement au-dessus des niveaux enregistrés en novembre dernier lorsque de nouvelles réglementations hypothécaires plus strictes ont été mises en place.

L’activité a diminué dans environ 50% de tous les marchés locaux, dominée par les trois plus grands marchés urbains – la région du Grand Toronto (GTA), le Grand Vancouver et Montréal.

Pour l’ensemble de l’année, le nombre de foyers changeants a augmenté de 1,9%. Les ventes ont ralenti au second semestre de 2016 et les données nouvellement publiées montrent que le ralentissement se poursuit. Notamment, les ventes d’une année sur l’autre ont diminué de façon significative dans le Lower Mainland de la Colombie-Britannique (C.-B.). Ce ralentissement a été exacerbé par l’introduction en août de la taxe de transfert de 15% sur les acheteurs étrangers non résidents. Le resserrement de la réglementation hypothécaire en octobre a atténué l’activité.

L’activité de logement ne fournira pas l’impulsion à la croissance économique globale en 2017 qu’elle a fait en 2015 et la première moitié de 2016. comme les acheteurs de première fois trouveront plus difficile de se qualifier pour une hypothèque et la disponibilité de crédit est diminuée par l’impact disproportionné de La nouvelle réglementation sur les prêteurs non bancaires.

Les ventes ont diminué par rapport au mois précédent dans environ la moitié de tous les marchés locaux, menées par trois des plus grands centres urbains du Canada: la région du Grand Toronto, le Grand Vancouver et Montréal.

Les pénuries d’approvisionnement constituent un problème majeur qui fait baisser les ventes et augmente les prix, surtout à Toronto et dans certaines parties de la Colombie-Britannique. Les pressions sur les prix se poursuivront sur ces marchés, à moins que la demande ne diminue de façon significative.

New Listings Continue To Decline

The number of newly listed homes fell 6.7% in January, the second consecutive monthly decline. New listings were down in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by the GTA and environs across Vancouver Island.

The monthly decline in new listings dwarfed the decline in sales so the national sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 67.7% last month compared to 64.0% in December and 60.2% in November. The ratio in the range of 40%-to-60% is considered generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. Above 60% is considered a sellers’ market and below 40%, a buyers’ market. 

The sales-to-new-listings ratio was above 60% in half of all local housing markets again last month–the vast majority of which continued to be in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario. There were sellers markets already in these regions.

Number of Months of Inventory

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 4.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January–unchanged from December and a six-year low for this measure. Clearly government efforts to increase supply is warranted.

The imbalance between limited housing supply and relatively strong demand in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region is without precedent (the region includes the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country). The number of months of inventory in January is now at or below one month of sales in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford and Guelph.

Prices Continue to Rise

The Aggregate Composite MLS House Price Index (HPI) rose 15.0% y-o-y last month. This was up a bit from December’s gain, reflecting an acceleration in condo and townhouse unit price increases.

This price index, unlike those provided by local real estate boards and other data sources, provides the best gauge of price trends because it corrects for changes in the mix of sales activity (between types and sizes of housing) from one month to the next.

Prices for two-storey single family homes posted the strongest year-over-year gains (+16.8%), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+15.8%), one-storey single family homes (+14.4%) and apartment units (+13.3%). In many of these regions, the supply of new single-family homes is so limited, you practically need to knock down a house to build a new one.

Price trends continued to vary widely by location. In the Fraser Valley and Greater Vancouver, prices continued to recede from their peaks reached in August 2016 but remained above year-ago levels (+24.9% y-o-y and +15.6% y-o-y respectively). Meanwhile, benchmark prices climbed to new heights in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island as well as in the Oakville-Milton, Guelph, and the GTA. Year-over-year price gains in these five markets ranged from about 18% to 26% in January. By comparison, home prices were down 2.9% y-o-y in Calgary and edged lower by 1.0% y-o-y in Saskatoon, continuing their retreat from peaks reached in 2015. Prices in these two markets are down 5.9% in Calgary and 4.3% in Saskatoon relative to their 2015 peak levels.

Home prices were up modestly from year-ago levels in Regina (+3.8%), Ottawa (+3.7%), Greater Montreal (+3.1%). In Greater Moncton, prices held steady. Monthly trends suggest that prices have continued to stabilize in these markets.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in January 2017 was $470,253 about in line with where it stood one year earlier. This marks the smallest y-o-y increase in nearly two years.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, which remain two of Canada’s tightest, most active and expensive housing markets. That said, Greater Vancouver’s share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the last year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price. The average price is reduced by almost $120,000 to $351,998 if Greater Vancouver and GTA sales are excluded from calculations.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Économiste en Chef, Centres Hypothécaires Dominion